Acta Geodynamica et Geomaterialia

Title: UNCERTAINTY IN DETERMINING THE PARAMETERS OF SURFACE DEFORMATION MODEL
Authors: Gruszczynski Wojciech, Niedojadlo Zygmunt and Mrocheń Dawid
DOI: 10.13168/AGG.2019.0017
Journal: Acta Geodynamica et Geomaterialia, Vol. 16, No. 2 (194), Prague 2019
Full Text: PDF file (0.8 MB)
Keywords: Mining deformations, Monte Carlo method, uncertainty estimation
Abstract: Predicting surface deformations caused by underground mining is an issue of significance both for the safety of overlaying facilities and for economic purposes. There are many different models for predicting the impact of underground mining on the land surface. One of them is the Knothe model commonly used in Poland and in the world. The paper presents two methods of estimating Knothe model parameters uncertainty. The parallel application of two methods enables the mutual verification of the results obtained and the identification of the potential errors and their sources in the case of any discrepancies. The first method is based on the so-called law of propagation of uncertainty, which in essence is the approximation based on the first-order Taylor series expansion. The second presented method is based on the Monte Carlo simulation.